Spain’s population to hit 50 million

BAS editor William Chislett

Spain’s population will reach 50 million this year, having grown more than 14 million over the last half century, the largest increase among the five biggest EU nations in relative terms (see Figure 1). The surge in population is almost entirely due to net international migration and not to an increase in the native-born population. Not that many decades ago, Spain was a net emigration country. 

Figure 1. Population growth, 1975-2025 (million)


19752025 (1)Absolute change% change
France54.069.1+ 15.1+30.0
Germany (2)78.784.1+5.4+6.8
Italy55.459.0+3.6+6.3
Poland34.037.3+4.1+9.7
Spain35.749.6 +13.9+38.9

(1) Year-end estimates.

(2) East and West Germany for 1975.

Source: World Bank Data & INE.

Such has been the growth in immigrants that the government began an amnesty in April until June for undocumented migrants, which is estimated will benefit more than 500,000 people. This “regularisation” is the seventh in 40 years, benefiting more than 1.7 million people. Applicants have to prove they do not have a criminal record and had lived in Spain for at least five months before 31 December 2025. The regularisation permit will be valid for one year –or five in the case of children– and renewable. After 10 years these migrants will be eligible to become Spanish citizens. They will not be eligible to move to other EU countries and work there legally until they have permanent residency in Spain.

Spain’s total fertility rate plummeted from 3 in 1964 to 2 in 1981 and to 1.2 in 2025, one of the lowest in the world and far short of the 2.1 at which existing population levels would be maintained in the absence of migration. Deaths have outnumbered births every year since 2015 (see Figure 2). This is a more recent trend in the UK. 

Figure 2.

In 1996 the United Nations forecast that by 2050 the total population of Spain would fall from almost 40 million to 28-30 million unless trends changed. They did, and significantly: the foreign-born population surged from 542,314 in 1996 (1.4% of the total population) to just over 10 million in 2025 (20%, higher than in France and Italy, and comparable to Germany).

The first influx of immigrants took place between 1995 and 2008 during Spain’s infrastructure and property boom, fuelled by cheap euro borrowing, low interest rates and lax lending by banks. An ageing population –Spain’s average life expectancy has risen from 73.3 years in 1975 to 84 years now– and a dwindling ‘native’ labour force opened up numerous jobs for immigrants until the global financial crisis and the real-estate crash. Immigrants are improving the shape of Spain’s population pyramid, mitigating the ageing population. The fertility rate of foreigners (1.27), however, is not much higher than that of Spaniards (1.10).

The flow of immigrants dried up between 2009 and 2017 – a period of high unemployment and deep recession – but a second influx began as of 2018. Despite the devastating impact of COVID, this wave intensified after 2022. The foreign-born population has increased by more than 1.6 million since then, and is powering an economy which has been growing at more than double the euro-zone average. 

Foreign workers now make up 14.4% of total employment (based on those contributing to the social security system), filling 44% of new jobs in 2025. The proportion of foreigners actively participating in the labour market is almost 70%, much higher than the 56.4% for Spain as whole. The total working population has risen by two million since 2020 to more than 25 million, a bigger increase than between 2005 and 2020, and the unemployment rate has come down from 16% in 2020 to an albeit still high 10%. Foreign workers contribute 10% of the social security system’s revenue and are responsible for 1% of its costs, according to a recent report.

Migrants in a country with a rapidly ageing population are supporting key sectors such as household chores, hospitality and agriculture  (see Figure 3). 

Figure 3. The 10 main sectors where foreigners paying social security work, September 2025 (%)


                Foreigners            Spaniards (1)
Household chores                               38                               62
Hospitality                               29                               71
Agriculture, livestock farming, forestry and fishing                               28                               72
Construction                               21                               79
Administrative and support services                               18                               82
Transport and storage                               17                               83
Real estate                               16                               84
Other services                               16                               84
Information and communications                               14                               86
Car sales and repairs                               13                               87

(1) Including naturalised Spaniards.

Source: Ministry of the Presidency.

Estimates vary, but on current trends, all projections point to a big increase in the old-age dependency ratio. The statistics institute INE projects that there will be just 1.2 people of working age for every person over the age of 65 in 2050 compared with the current 2.6.

Such a demographic shift, unless countered by migration, will reduce labour supply, slow potential output growth, weigh on government and public services with an ageing civil service, and place growing pressures on public finances, particularly the pay-as-you-go pension and healthcare systems. 

Over the past 25 years Spain has become, like many other EU countries, a much more diverse society. Spain has more Latin Americans (4.2 million in 2024) than the rest of the EU together (around 3 million). Latin Americans bring with them the Spanish language (except for Brazil) and, generally, the Roman Catholic religion, easing their integration into Spanish society. 

Most Latin Americans do not need a visa to come to Spain (one has to ask whether this policy can last for ever). For them, the process of obtaining Spanish nationality is easier than for other countries. Indeed, 45% of Latin American immigrants have already acquired Spanish nationality. Their level of educational attainment is generally low, but higher than that for immigrants from Asia and Africa. Those with higher educational attainment, such as lawyers, doctors and engineers, find it more difficult to get a job because of the long time it takes to get their professional qualifications officially validated.

While assimilation has been largely successful, it is striking how very few MPs in Spain are foreign-born (only 45 of the almost 4,000 MPs between 1993 and the last election in 2023, far lower than the UK, the Netherlands and Germany, according to a study by Proyecto Repchance). Anti-migrant demonstrations and violence have also been comparatively infrequent. The worst recently was last July in Torre-Pacheco in Murcia, when an attack on a pensioner sparked anti-migrant unrest.

Of those who do not have Spanish nationality, the largest country group is from Morocco, followed by Romania. Moroccans, because of language and cultural issues, have not assimilated as easily. Romanians, on the other hand, pick up Spanish quickly as both languages are descended from Vulgar Latin.

While polls show immigrants are viewed as playing a positive role in powering the economy, they also present challenges and the need for greater long-term planning.

While by far the main negative aspect of immigration for young adults (18-24-year olds) is greater insecurity, which is more perceived than real as Spain is a relatively safe country with low violent crime, the main concern for those aged 45 to 74 is the greater pressure on public services, according to a report by Opina360.

The insecurity issue is linked to the sharp increase in young adults supporting the hard-right, anti-immigrant VOX, whose claims draw on misinformation rather than reliable evidence. Only 7% of respondents identifying themselves as on the left said insecurity was greater now, compared with 50% on the right. VOX has been campaigning against the regularisation under the slogan ¡Ni uno más! (not a single one more).  

One of Spain’s most pressing social problems is the lack of new affordable housing. The economy needs immigrant labour, and those immigrants need homes, adding further to the housing shortage.  The supply of properties cannot keep up with the influx of new arrivals, let alone with the resident population. Surveys by the state pollster CIS show immigration is one of the main concerns after the housing shortage (20.3% of respondents in the February survey, compared with 42.8% for housing).

Approximately 140,000 new households are established each year, but only around 80,000 new homes are built. The situation today is a far cry from that in 2008, before the crash of the housing boom, when there was a huge oversupply of properties. In 2006 the number of housing starts (664,923) was more than that of Germany, France and Italy combined.

Furthermore, Spain’s stock of social rental dwellings (2.5% of the total housing stock, compared with an EU average of 9%) is the lowest among the 38 OECD countries. The housing bottleneck raises questions over whether immigrant arrivals can continue at the current pace. Yet without immigrants Spain would, over the next decade, have many unfilled job vacancies.

The OECD points out that there are an estimated 3.8 million empty properties in Spain, but these are mostly located in places where people do not want to live because job prospects are limited and basic services and amenities are not close at hand. One-third of empty properties are in towns with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants, in what is known as la España vaciada (emptied-out Spain), and only 18% in cities. It has been noted that the Catholic Church has unused buildings and the Ministry of Defence empty barracks and land that could be used for housing.

The demographic issues in the broadest sense need to be tackled through consensus between the main political parties, but in today’s Spain, with its deeply ideological differences and polarisation, that, sadly, is a pipe dream.

Adapted from two reports originally published by the Elcano Royal Institute.